World Trade Growth Positively Surprises in 2017
Tuesday, December 5, 2017
Global trade has experienced a broad upturn in 2017. Countries with an open economy stand to profit the most from this. However, this stimulus may not persist in 2018, according to Atradius in its November Economic Outlook.
World economic output has surprised to the upside through 2017, supported by accommodative monetary policy, a modest energy price recovery and stronger-than-expected growth in China and the Eurozone. International trade especially has experienced a stronger-than-expected expansion in 2017 – accelerating from 1.4 percent year over year in 2016 to 3.8 percent as of September 2017. It has prompted upward revisions of trade forecasts around the globe.
The strong performance of world trade through 2017 is in part due to the recovering investment growth in major markets – especially the U.S. and China – boosting demand for imports. It can also be attributed to a reduction in political uncertainty.
“The strong acceleration in trade growth through 2017 is a welcome development that goes hand in hand with the stronger global economic outlook,” said Andreas Tesch, Atradius CMO. “Our data reflects the importance of international trade. Indeed, the majority of upward GDP forecast revisions have been in more manufacturing-oriented, export-intensive economies in Eastern Europe and Asia. In more domestic-oriented economies, like those in Latin America, developments were more stable.”